Two Syndromes, Re: U.S. Sees an Opportunity to Press Iran on Nuclear Fuel, International Herald Tribune/New York Times, January 3, 2010

The Obama administration is dead wrong if it thinks that “domestic unrest and signs of unexpected trouble in Tehran’s nuclear program make its leaders particularly vulnerable to strong and immediate new sanctions.” They have it completely backwards. Domestic unrest makes it more likely that Iran will proceed full speed ahead to develop nuclear weapons and launch them against Israel, not less.

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The Iranian regime is desperate to hold on to power and is becoming more desperate every day. Nothing unites a country more than perceived external threats and war. The Mullahs will continue to demonize the United States and Israel prior to starting a war against the Israelis as part of their effort to keep themselves in power. That’s not the only reason they will try and annihilate Israel of course but it is a factor in their thinking. They believe the people of Iran will coalesce behind them in the face of common enemies. It’s the “my country right or wrong” syndrome and a cynical political ploy.

What can prevent this from happening? Nothing the U.S. is willing to do, that’s for sure. Iran’s leaders know that Obama is myopic and weak and that they have nothing to fear from him because his bombast is meaningless. It’s the Israelis who will bring Iran’s nuclear madness to an end, not the Americans or the international community. They will do it by launching a preemptive strike and disabling or destroying the Iranians nuclear facilities.

Why? Try the “kill or be killed” syndrome.

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