So the American foreign policy establishment is of two minds about the uprising in Egypt. Let me help it out then.
It would be a disaster of epic proportions if the rioters in Egypt succeeded in overthrowing the Mubarak regime, not only for the United States, Israel and the Western world in general but also for the Egyptian people themselves. Make no mistake, if Mubarak’s government fell it will be replaced by an Islamic theocracy with the Muslim Brotherhood either at its helm or behind the scenes calling the shots. Whatever freedoms Egyptians currently enjoy and whatever hopes they have for democracy and improving their lot would quickly disappear and they would be forced to live under the iron sword of Islam. They will be sadly disillusioned, just like the people of Iran were sadly disillusioned when the theocrats took over their country in 1979. If they think they have it bad now under Mubarak wait until the theocrats take control. Life will be infinitely more difficult if that happened.
Ask the Iranians. The ones that can speak honestly that is.
A takeover would also have severe consequences for the United States, Israel and the Western world in general. An Islamic government in Cairo would view the U.S. as the Great Satan in the same way that the government in Tehran does and would challenge America every way it could, economically, militarily and on moral and religious grounds as well. The damage that it could inflict would be enormous and it would take every oportunity to do so, not only in the Middle East but around the world and in the American homeland too.
Its no secret that the Muslim Brotherhood is affiliated with many organizations in the United States, including large national ones, whose purpose is to Islamize the U.S. and eventually turn the country into an Islamic state. An Islamic government in Cairo would allow their activities to be significantly ramped up. Its no secret that an Islamic government in Cairo could cripple America by shutting down the Suez Canal, among other things. Would it go that far? You bet it would. Its no secret that the Egyptian military is strong enough and capable enough to offer a credible deterrent if the United States finds it necessary to use its own armed forces to protect its interests, especially if Egypt and Iran acted together, which they would undoubtedly do. Would an Islamic government in Cairo fight the U.S.? Yes it would, particularly since it would see America as weak and feckless under President Obama and wouldn’t believe for a minute it had anything to fear.
A takeover would make Israel’s existence even more precarious than it already is. An Islamic government in Cairo would see removing Israel from the face of the earth as practically its first order of business and would do everything in its power to do precisely that as soon as it could. War between Egypt and Israel would be inevitable as soon as a takeover occurred, a war in which Israel’s victory (and survival) would by no means be certain…Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, Hamas and all the others would fight on Egypt’s side and it is entirely possible that the United States would choose not to intervene. Even if it did it is not clear at all that it would be effective. A takeover would be disastrous even if Israel did win the ensuing war.
A takeover means that an Islamic government in Cairo would blackmail European countries into doing its bidding and would dramatically hasten Islamisation in Europe and elsewhere, which is in no one’s best interests.
Hold on Hosni, hold on. Don’t let the rioters drive you out of office. Make necesary changes and reforms to be sure, but hang in there and don’t leave.